Arizona lawmakers debate immigration ballot measure; we fact-checked their claims

PHOENIX (AZFamily) — Two Arizona lawmakers debated Proposition 314, a GOP-backed ballot measure which aims to toughen up immigration enforcement in the state

State Sen. John Kavanagh, a Republican, argued in support of Prop 314, stating that that measure will help reduce illegal immigration in the state.

Democratic state Rep. Analise Ortiz argued against it, claiming that the law is unconstitutional and could hurt the state with a price tag of $325 million, according to an analysis by the Grand Canyon Institute.

The proposed law is based on a Texas law under review by the U.S. Supreme Court, so even if voters pass it in November, it won’t go into effect unless the high court rules it’s constitutional.

Fact-checking claims by Sen. Kavanagh and Rep. Ortiz

As part of our commitment to hold politicians accountable before, during, and after the election cycles, we fact-checked claims by both candidates during Thursday’s debate.

Claim: 10 million people will cross into the U.S. by the end of Biden’s presidency

Fact-Check: ✅ Mostly True

Sen. Kavanagh is likely referring to a U.S. House committee report that detailed that the Biden administration was on track to hit 10 million encounters based on trends track from January 2021 through April 2024.

Data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection shows that about there have been more than 10 million nationwide crossings between October 2021 and August 2024.

We’re rating this claim as “mostly true” because not every encounter results in someone entering the U.S., but in many cases, it does result in border crossers in the United States, even if temporarily.

Claim: 90% of fentanyl is smuggled through ports of entry, mostly by U.S. citizens

Fact-Check: ✅ Mostly True

According to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, “more than 90% of interdicted fentanyl is stopped at Ports of Entry.”

When it comes to federal drug trafficking offenses, about 81.9% of people prosecuted for those crimes are U.S. citizens, per data from the United States Sentencing Commission.

Claim: Prop 314 implements ‘stop-and-frisk’ searches, with no new funding for law enforcement

Fact-Check: ⚠️ Needs Context

Opponents have dubbed the border security measure “SB 1070 2.0″ amid concerns that it could reignite racial profiling and could give law enforcement “free reign” to ask for people’s immigration status.

The law requires probable cause for an arrest to take place, which the proposed bill states as “a law enforcement officer who witnesses a violation, technological recording violations or any other constitutionally sufficient indicia of probable cause.”

Currently, the U.S. Border Patrol can conduct searches and stops within a 100-mile zone from the border, and checkpoints are often manned along heavily traveled routes.

Claim: 362 people on terror watch list were found crossing U.S-Mexico border

Fact-Check: ✅ True

A U.S. House committee report from May 2024 says that “since FY21, 362 aliens on the terrorist watchlist have been caught crossing our Southwest border illegally.” The latest data from CBP has increased that number to 367.

Claim: Immigrants contribute $5 billion to local economy

Fact-Check: ✅ True

A 2017 report from done through a partnership with the Arizona Chamber of Commerce showed that immigrants in Phoenix held $5 billion in spending power.

A 2023 report from the American Immigration Council found that the immigrants contributed more than $26 billion to the state’s economy, and more than $5 billion from undocumented immigrants.

Similar numbers are reported in other states.

What does Prop 314 do?

Prop 314 would, if approved by voters, make it a state crime for people who illegally cross the border anywhere other than a port of entry. The measure would also give state judges the power to order deportations.

The ballot measure would also require E-Verify to be processed for financial aid or public welfare programs, and make it a class 6 felony for anyone to submit false information to an employer or for public benefit programs.

Prop 314 would also make the sale of fentanyl a class 2 felony if someone knowingly sells the drug and it results in the death of another person.

Earlier this month, Arizona’s Family reported on a poll by the nonpartisan Noble Predictive Insights which showed that 63% of polled voters said they supported the ballot measure. 16% said they don’t support it and 6% said they would abstain from voting on the measure. The remaining 16% were unsure.

Gov. Katie Hobbs opposed the ballot measure when it was being finalized in the state Legislature.

She vetoed a similar bill called the Arizona Border Invasion Act earlier this year.

“Business leaders, border law enforcement, and bipartisan local leaders throughout the state who oppose this bill know it will not make us safer, instead it will demonize our communities and lead to racial profiling,” Gov. Katie Hobbs said at the time. “We desperately need more resources to secure our border, not empty political rhetoric.”

Arizona’s Family is a proud partner of the Arizona Clean Elections Commission and the Arizona Media Association which are hosting debates and discussions for key local and statewide races.

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