La Niña likely returns, what does it mean for the monsoon?
PHOENIX (AZFamily) — The Climate Prediction Center issued their monthly forecast on Thursday predicting that La Niña will likely return this summer and fall. Specifically, they are forecasting a 69% chance that La Niña will occur from July through September. What does that mean for the monsoon here in Arizona?
In general, there is not a strong link between La Niña and our summer precipitation trends. In other words, knowing La Niña is coming does not necessarily mean we can forecast this summer’s monsoon rainfall. However, it’s still worth asking: How much monsoon rainfall did we get the last few times La Niña was around?
Here is a look back at the four most recent La Niñas that occurred during monsoon season.
Phoenix Precipitation: June 15 - September 30
- 2016: 2.49 inches
- 2020: 1.00 inches
- 2021: 4.20 inches
- 2022: 2.23 inches
The graphic below shows the past 10 years of monsoon rainfall in Phoenix.
Normal rainfall from June 15 to September 30 is 2.43 inches, which means that 2020 was well below normal, 2021 was well above normal and 2022/2016 were right around normal. This shows how almost anything can happen during a La Niña monsoon!
It’s important to keep in mind that even during monsoon seasons with below-normal rainfall, it only takes one bad storm to create threats to life and property. To learn more about how to stay safe during this upcoming monsoon season, please visit our First Alert Weather monsoon page.
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