Arizona monsoon outlook trending hotter and drier than normal

PHOENIX (AZFamily) — Several different offices at the National Weather Service teamed up this week to issue their Arizona monsoon outlook for the year.

They are leaning toward a drier and hotter than normal monsoon season, which lines up with what Arizona’s Family First Alert weather team is forecasting.

Precipitation forecasts going several months into the future are extremely difficult, so it’s important to provide some context. The National Weather Service has the following forecast for precipitation in Arizona during the monsoon season:

Above Normal Precipitation Chance: 28%

Normal Precipitation Chance: 33%

Below Normal Precipitation Chance: 39%

Notice that there are no categories that show above 50%. The highest chance of the three categories is the “Below Normal Precipitation Chance” at 39%. The bottom line is that the forecast is “leaning” toward a drier-than-normal monsoon, but the forecast does not have high confidence.

In general, temperatures can be forecast with much higher confidence, and that is indeed the case for the Arizona Monsoon temperature outlook. The National Weather Service has a 60% chance of hotter-than-normal conditions during the monsoon. In other words, the forecast is “leaning” towards a hotter-than-normal monsoon, and this forecast has much higher confidence than the precipitation forecast.

So why are we and the National Weather Service both forecasting a hot and dry monsoon? One reason is based on past trends; in general, drier and hotter summers are becoming more common. Secondly, the rain and snow this past winter and spring have led to above-normal soil moisture, and this moisture can sometimes delay the start of monsoon rains. A third factor is the expected development of La Niña, which can sometimes squash Pacific tropical activity.

Here is a look back at the past 10 monsoon seasons in Phoenix.

To summarize the precipitation forecast using the graphic above, we could end up above, below or right along the average line of 2.43″. There is not much confidence in any of these scenarios, but if we have to put our chips somewhere, we would put them below the Phoenix average of 2.43″.

Don’t forget to watch our Monsoon Special put together by Arizona’s Family First Alert weather team, which will air Friday, June 14 at 5:30 p.m. on both 3TV and CBS 5!

See a spelling or grammatical error in our story? Please click here to report it.

Do you have a photo or video of a breaking news story? Send it to us here with a brief description.

Copyright 2024 KTVK/KPHO. All rights reserved.